From an open ocean detector to a coastal site: directly, immediately, accurately...


The first experiment with a join response to two detectors has yielded the same forecast time as conventional DART-inversion-based methods (aka PMEL's), and an instant, accurate, and ambiguity-free prediction including that for the later waves.


03/11/2011 Tohoku tsunami measurements at DART stations 21413 and 21419 reached by the tsunami 1.5 hr after the EQ are converted into the wave time histories at 13 deep-ocean detectors toward the East, where the tsunami arrived 1.5-7.5 hr later: Aleutian and Alaskan DARTs (west to east) 21415, 21414, 46408, 46402, 46403, 46409, and 46410; two ONC BPRs at 860 m depth (88) and at 2660 m depth (CORK) offshore Vancouver Island; West Coast DARTS (north to south) 46404, 46407, and 46411; and DART 51407 in Hawaii. Response computations with Cliffs.
BLACK - MEASUREMENTS, de-tided;
RED - PREDICTION, deduced from the 21413's and 21419's records.

2011/03/11 tsunami records (de-tided) at 15 offshore stations; black - measurements, red - hindcast obtained directly from the measurements at DARTs 21413 and 21419.    Click here for larger figure


More demos:

 Reading North America with DART 32412 (off Peru)

Forecast Demo (QuickTime movie) - 03/11/2011 Tohoku tsunami measurements at DART stations 21413, 21418, and 21419 are used to deduce the wave time histories offshore the Pacific NW (at a NEPTUNE gage and DARTs 46404 and 46407), and at coastal sites in WA (Westport and Toke Point) and northern CA (Crescent City). No tsunami simulation is used for the forecast.

References:

 Dmitry Nicolsky, Elena Tolkova, Elena Suleimani. No-source tsunami forecasting for Alaska communities,
Abstract NH13A-3722,  AGU Fall Meeting, 2014      View Poster

W. Power and E. Tolkova. Forecasting tsunamis in Poverty Bay, New Zealand, with deep-ocean gauges.
doi: 10.1007/s10236-013-0665-6

Data sources:

 DARTs           National Data Buoy Center, NOAA/NWS.
ONC BPRs   Oceans Networks Canada Data Archive, University of Victoria, Canada.