From an open ocean detector to a coastal site: directly, immediately, accurately...

Click here for larger figure
 02/27/2010 Chile tsunami measurements at DART station 32412 offshore Peru are converted into the wave time histories at five West Coast DARTs (south to north, or right to left in the map on the top) 43412 (Mexico), 46412 (CA), 46407 (OR), 46404 (OR-WA), and 46419 (WA), and two ONC BPRs 22503 at 860 m depth and CORK at 2660 m depth (BC, Canada), where the tsunami arrived 6.5-13 hr after it had reached 32412.

BLACK - MEASUREMENTS, de-tided;
RED - PREDICTION, deduced from the 32412 record.

The same technique was applied to hindcast a tsunami at coastal gages in Santa Monica, Monterey Bay, and Crescent City, CA (south to north, red o-s in the map) in the 02/27/2010 and 09/16/2015 tsunami events, from each tsunami measurements at DART 32412, 10-12 h ahead of the tsunami's arrival at the sites. The same response function set was used for both events (red stars in the map mark the EQ epicenters, the 2010 EQ is south of the 2015 EQ).

Response computations with Cliffs.
2010/02/27 tsunami record (de-tided) at 32412 (left) and that at Monterey (right); black - measurements, red - hindcast obtained directly from the 32412 record.    Click here for larger figure


The same, for the 2015/09/16 tsunami event.    Click here for larger figure



2010/02/27 (left) and 2015/09/16 (right) tsunami time histories at Crescent City:
black circles - 1-min-sampled data, de-tided; green circles - 6-min-sampled data, de-tided; red - hindcasts from the respective 32412 records.   Click here for larger figure



2010/02/27 (left) and 2015/09/16 (right) tsunami time histories at Santa Monica:
black circles - 1-min-sampled data, de-tided; green circles - 6-min-sampled data, de-tided; red - hindcasts from the respective 32412 records.    Click here for larger figure


Check-it-yourself:

  • Get Response of Monterey Bay gage to DART 32412, tsunami records, and a forecasting script (Matlab/Octave) here
  • Run the forecasting script to generate the predictions in Monterey in 2010/02/27 or 2015/09/16 events (shown above), using the 32412 records and the provided Response.
  • Observe, how a tsunami signal offshore Peru transforms into a proxy for the tsunami time history in Monterey, CA, to be recorded 11 hr later!

    • More demos:

    		 Tohoku to West Coast Reading California in Aleutians

    References:

    		 Dmitry Nicolsky, Elena Tolkova, Elena Suleimani. No-source tsunami forecasting for Alaska communities,
    Abstract NH13A-3722,  AGU Fall Meeting, 2014      View Poster

    W. Power and E. Tolkova. Forecasting tsunamis in Poverty Bay, New Zealand, with deep-ocean gauges.
    doi: 10.1007/s10236-013-0665-6

    Data sources:

    		 DARTs           National Data Buoy Center, NOAA/NWS.
    Gages           Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services, NOAA/NOS.
    ONC BPRs   Oceans Networks Canada Data Archive, University of Victoria, Canada.